Role of Comparative Risk Assessment in Addressing Environmental Security in the Middle East

During the 21st century, environmental challenges are likely to intensify across the world and possibly lead to violent conflicts. Strategies for conflict avoidance will be incomplete unless they recognize, discuss, and mitigate regional environmental stress factors. Comparative risk assessment (CRA) is one of the most critical tools emerging to influence modern environmental policies and is increasingly used to create a common language to help reconcile competing interests in development and environmental disputes around the world. This article considers the environmental challenges facing the Middle East in light of their "transboundary" nature and proposes CRA as a framework for setting environmental priorities and reducing tensions in the region.     

“声有哀乐”还是“声无哀乐”——论音乐的表现性和表现方式

感情是人对其特殊的生命状态或特殊的生命运动过程的自我感知,而这种特殊的生命运动过程就是一部"天然乐章"--以特定的意念思绪及特殊的生理运动过程为旋律,以特殊的、非同凡常的生理节律为节奏.而音乐,只不过是对于这种"天然乐章"的表现或模仿而已.     

创新型人力资本及其集成决定论--一种对企业绩效差异成因认识的新视角

经济与管理学界对企业绩效差异成因的认识主要可概括为两大流派：企业绩效差异成因外生论和企业绩效差异成因内生论。其中,企业绩效差异成因内生论又可以分为企业绩效差异成因契约论和企业绩效差异成因能力论。作者在对这两大流派进行分析和评述的基础上,论述了企业绩效差异成因契约论和企业绩效差异成因能力论相融合的必要性、可能性与模型构建,得出了创新型人力资本及其集成才是企业绩效差异的最根本原因的结论。     

对政府绩效评估几个基本问题的反思

政府绩效评估是一种非常重要的管理工具,是一个国际公认的难题;政府绩效评估在西方国家受到极大的重视和推广,已呈现出制度化、规范化和科学化的特点和趋势;中国政府绩效评估虽已走上实践舞台但任重道远;中国政府绩效评估主体是由外部评估主体和内部评估主体构成的一个有机系统.     

中国政府采购绩效评估现状及其完善

政府采购绩效评估具有监督政府采购行为、提高政府采购绩效和改善政府形象等作用.文章分析了我国政府采购绩效评估存在的问题,提出了加强政府采购绩效评估的建议.     

Health Risk Assessment of a Modern Municipal Waste Incinerator

During the modernization of the municipal waste incinerator (MWI, maximum capacity of 180,000 tons per year) of Metropolitan Grenoble (405,000 inhabitants), in France, a risk assessment was conducted, based on four tracer pollutants: two volatile organic compounds (benzene and 1, 1, 1 trichloroethane) and two heavy metals (nickel and cadmium, measured in particles). A Gaussian plume dispersion model, applied to maximum emissions measured at the MWI stacks, was used to estimate the distribution of these pollutants in the atmosphere throughout the metropolitan area. A random sample telephone survey (570 subjects) gathered data on time-activity patterns, according to demographic characteristics of the population. Life-long exposure was assessed as a time-weighted average of ambient air concentrations. Inhalation alone was considered because, in the Grenoble urban setting, other routes of exposure are not likely. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to describe probability distributions of exposures and risks. The median of the life-long personal exposures distribution to MWI benzene was 3.2·10^–5 g/m³ (20th and 80th percentiles = 1.5·10^–5 and 6.5·10^–5 g/m³), yielding a 2.6·10^–10 carcinogenic risk (1.2·10^–10–5.4·10^–10). For nickel, the corresponding life-time exposure and cancer risk were 1.8·10^–4 g/m³ (0.9.10^–4 – 3.6·10^–4 g/m³) and 8.6·10^–8 (4.3·10^–8–17.3·10^–8); for cadmium they were respectively 8.3·10^–6 g/m³ (4.0·10^–6–17.6·10^–6) and 1.5·10^–8 (7.2·10^–9–3.1·10^–8). Inhalation exposure to cadmium emitted by the MWI represented less than 1% of the WHO Air Quality Guideline (5 ng/m³), while there was a margin of exposure of more than 10⁹ between the NOAEL (150 ppm) and exposure estimates to trichloroethane. Neither dioxins nor mercury, a volatile metal, were measured. This could lessen the attributable life-long risks estimated. The minute (VOCs and cadmium) to moderate (nickel) exposure and risk estimates are in accord with other studies on modern MWIs meeting recent emission regulations, however.     

Mixed Levels of Uncertainty in Complex Policy Models

The characterization and treatment of uncertainty poses special challenges when modeling indeterminate or complex coupled systems such as those involved in the interactions between human activity, climate and the ecosystem. Uncertainty about model structure may become as, or more important than, uncertainty about parameter values. When uncertainty grows so large that prediction or optimization no longer makes sense, it may still be possible to use the model as a behavioral test bed to examine the relative robustness of alternative observational and behavioral strategies. When models must be run into portions of their phase space that are not well understood, different submodels may become unreliable at different rates. A common example involves running a time stepped model far into the future. Several strategies can be used to deal with such situations. The probability of model failure can be reported as a function of time. Possible alternative surprises can be assigned probabilities, modeled separately, and combined. Finally, through the use of subjective judgments, one may be able to combine, and over time shift between models, moving from more detailed to progressively simpler order-of-magnitude models, and perhaps ultimately, on to simple bounding analysis.     

Critical Radionuclide/Critical Pathway Analysis for the U.S. Department of Energy's Savannah River Site

Many different radionuclides have been released to the environment from the Savannah River Site (SRS) during the facility's operational history. However, as shown by this analysis, only a small number of the released radionuclides have been significant contributors to potential doses and risks to off-site people. This article documents the radiological critical contaminant/critical pathway analysis performed for SRS. If site missions and operations remain constant over the next 30 years, only tritium oxide releases are projected to exceed a maximally exposed individual (MEI) risk of 1.0E-06 for either the airborne or liquid pathways. The critical exposure pathways associated with site airborne releases are inhalation and vegetation consumption, whereas the critical exposure pathways associated with liquid releases are drinking water and fish consumption. For the SRS-specific, nontypical exposure pathways (i.e., recreational fishing and deer and hog hunting), cesium-137 is the critical radionuclide.     

Challenges to the Acceptance of Probabilistic Risk Analysis

This paper discusses a number of the key challenges to the acceptance and application of probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Those challenges include: (a) the extensive reliance on subjective judgment in PRA, requiring the development of guidance for the use of PRA in risk-informed regulation, and possibly the development of robust or reference prior distributions to minimize the reliance on judgment; and (b) the treatment of human performance in PRA, including not only human error per se but also management and organizational factors more broadly. All of these areas are seen as presenting interesting research challenges at the interface between engineering and other disciplines.     

基于“三性”分析的商业银行经营绩效综合评价模型

流动性、安全性和盈利性(统称为“三性”是商业银行经营管理的基本原则。它们之间既相互依存又相互冲突和矛盾。协调处理这三者之间的关系,一直是评价商业银行经营绩效的难点。本文所建立的综合评价模型,其指标体系涵盖了流动性、安全性和盈利性三个方面,将银行经营绩效层层分解为具体的财务报表数据,合理解决了同一指标在对“三性”产生不同影响时的评分问题。将“三性”之间的制约矛盾量化为具体的模型。